A Dismal Halloween: MoBS Publishes their Ebola Predictions for Oct. 31

MoBS Predictive Table showing cases by country by Oct. 31st. Click this image to read the entire report and view all tables.

If you’re not a science geek, then you probably don’t know that MoBS stands for Modeling of Biological and Socio-Technical Systems. In other words, they’re really good with statistics and predictive extrapolations. Honestly, I wasn’t all that keen on the studying Statistics back in college (partly because my graduate assistant teacher barely spoke English), but even someone with no background can see trouble brewing from the MoBS projections. I’ve included one of their graphics, but be sure to click on it, which will take you to the MoBS ‘live paper’ of the ongoing computer predictions. Bookmark this one for future reference.

The table to the left (click on it for the full report and other tables) indicates that there is about a 75$ chance that the US will see other imported Ebola cases if we do not set up travel restrictions. That number can be reduced to about 25% with some restrictions. No, restrictions aren’t perfect, but the Thomas Eric Duncan case has resulted in at least 2 other cases, so every imported case we stop is a three-fold victory. Also, this model is from Oct. 14th, so MoBS may not have included the revelation that Ebola-positive nurse Amber Vinson flew on Frontier Airlines from Cleveland to DFW just hours before reporting symptoms to Texas Health. The CDC now reports that she may have been symptomatic during that flight, which also means she could have been communicating Ebola virus. This will become a ‘he said, she said’ event, as media are also reporting that Vinson claims the CDC cleared her to travel.

Bloomberg is also saying that MoBS data indicates that the US will have as many as two dozen new cases by Halloween. If true,perhaps, a Hazmat suit for Halloween isn’t such a bad idea.